APLA 14th Biennial Conference
Thursday 15th July 1999
The Electronic Parliamentary Library
Present and Future Trends
Helga Alemson
Deputy Librarian
Queensland Parliamentary Library
CONTENTS
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1. INTRODUCTION
Various changes associated with electronic publishing, information
technology, communications and scientific innovations are examined
in terms of how they affect parliamentary libraries.
2. CURRENT SITUATION - KEY CONSIDERATIONS
2.1 'ALL DIGITAL' LIBRARIES?
2.1.1 A vision of 'AND, NOT, OR'1
Clearly, we are a long way away from the paperless library or even
the paperless office. We actually use more paper than ever before2.
One library expert predicted in 1992 that the market for information
printed on paper would shrink by 50% within 5 years. Instead by
the end of 1997 it was substantially larger3.
Only a small proportion of the millions of items held by the Library
of Congress are in digitized form. Naturally the balance could change
in the future. Certainly a few virtual libraries exist. They tend
to be small specialist libraries lacking central physical collections,
but as pointed out by Walt Crawford, the concept of 'AND, NOT, OR'
could represent a vision for the future. He envisaged the acceptance
of print 'AND' electronic communication rather than print 'OR' electronic
communication4.
2.1.2 Advantages of Electronic Collections
2.1.2.1 Overcoming the accommodation problem
During the last few years it has become increasingly difficult
for libraries in general to properly house their collections. This
can be attributed to changes in public works funding policy by governments
and increases in overall acquisitions due to the information explosion
linked to a dramatic growth in publishing. As a consequence, a greater
proportion of works have been discarded to make way for new items.
The criticism has been made, both within Australia and overseas,
that the public can no longer access certain publications, due to
their transfer from public to private collections or other black
holes. This reality can also negatively impact on the information
pool available to parliamentary libraries via inter-library loan
arrangements, and quick reference exchanges. The situation is worsened
by the fact that in America alone, some 25,000 books go out of print
each year, with 40% scrapped due to lack of sales5.
Obviously library acquisitions in electronic form will help to
overcome the problem caused by lack of adequate shelf accommodation,
and indeed an increasing number of publishers are making their works
available electronically - CCH, Butterworths, and Law Book Australia,
to name but a few. Octavo, a California company, is creating digital
masterpieces for the masses6 and Online
Originals, a London based book publisher exists solely as a Web
site. Its books are delivered as e-mail attachments in Adobe Acrobat's
PDF format7. While some journals relevant
to parliamentary libraries are published solely in electronic form,
there are also providers of full-text electronic equivalents of
printed journal articles such as Gale's Infotrac and OCLC's First
Search.
2.1.2.2 On-line searching advantages
Provided the electronic work is accessible via appropriate software,
the user is advantaged by being able to search the contents of works,
thus enabling fast access to required information. Also, appropriate
networking enables clients to gain 24-hour access to the contents
of electronic collections.
Within the Queensland Parliamentary Library, an interface known
as Concord Browser was designed within the library for Intranet
and Internet clients. It was envisaged as a way of making both large
inhouse collections of electronic documents and catalogue references
as well as databases on the Internet easily accessible to users.
The CGI script was designed and implemented by consultant Phil Moroney8.
Parliamentary staff have the choice of searching our electronic
and general collection by means of either Concord For Windows or
Concord Classic.
2.1.2.3 The impact of '3 books per minute' new digital printing
presses
New digital printing presses which can print three books per minute,
such as that offered by Chevrillon Philippe Industrie, marketed
as 'Book IT'9, and Borders10
in the United States (with agencies in the United Kingdom) are now
enabling works to be held in electronic form and printed immediately
on demand. This process could help to ensure that future works should
never go out of print. The good news is that publishers themselves
are viewing it this way. It could also make it more attractive for
publishers to cater for quality works of the kind that frequently
fail to attract publishers because of profit concerns. This could
be of direct benefit to parliamentary library researchers. Such
firms also offer to download works on the Net or e-mail them, thus
satisfying the need that information be as up-to-date as possible
for parliamentary library requirements.
2.1.2.4 E-commerce
E-commerce, the term used for doing business such as buying,
selling, ordering and providing information on the Internet has
now become common in many parliamentary libraries. The Queensland
Parliamentary Library can claim to have accepted e-commerce through
its acquisition, Web publishing and Internet/Intranet Concord Browser
policies. The exception is that to date, no actual payments are
made through the Net.
2.1.2.5 Traditional functions remain
Whether we acquire material in print or digital form, we are still
involved in traditional functions such as selection, organising
of resources and dissemination of information. Of major concern
is the need to provide accessibility to our collections.
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2.1.3 Problems of Accessing Electronic Collections
2.1.3.1 Clients need to acquire new skills
Within parliamentary libraries there are two main categories of
users. The research and reference staff along with other client
services staff undertake searching and retrieval on behalf of clients.
Then there are the clients themselves.
Library staff need to continually acquire new search skills to
keep up-to-date with new software features linked to electronic
collections. Clients in particular are disadvantaged, in that unless
they also acquire certain bread-and-butter search skills
they may be less well off, in terms of their own personal reading,
than when they could quickly reference a library work or borrow
it. It is essential for the library to develop user-friendly interfaces,
and provide training to assist clients wishing to avail themselves
of the new procedures.
2.1.3.2 User access and navigational tools
Assuming clients have acquired basic search skills, unless appropriate
networks have been established to allow for after-hours access,
traditional levels of service will be degraded.
Although WANs (Wide Area Networks) and LANs (Local Area Networks)
exist in several parliaments, in general there is much to be done
to render them more stable. Access problems caused by bottlenecks
need to be overcome and more emphasis placed on a sophisticated
integrated communications solution. In addition, much existing software
presents navigational problems. For example, access to different
on-line databases may confuse parliamentarians by requiring different
searching techniques. Even if the CD Rom collection has been networked,
there are differing degrees of useability. For some types of data,
paper form can be assessed more efficiently and effectively than
the CD Rom, although for others, online search options offer much
greater retrieval advantage.
2.1.3.3 Comparison of Contrast Ratios between paper and electronic
monitors
Most importantly, there are problems in terms of human eye strain
associated with CRSs (cathode ray screens), PC monitor designs and
LSD (liquid crystal displays) used in laptops and notebooks. It
is not surprising that more paper than ever is being used. Ironically
one often witnesses an individual printing a report or e-mail simply
to check input as a draft before tearing up the paper and dispatching
the electronic version which becomes the stored archive. The continuing
popularity of paper is understandable. It is very portable, it can
easily be held at convenient angles for quick eye scanning, and
the contrast ratio of print on paper is approximately 200, compared
with the personal computer which is around 60. A laptop with liquid
crystal display is about 30 while a personal organiser with black
on grey can be as low as 1011. It
can therefore be argued that technology needs to present a much
better reading device than either the PC or the laptop/notepad.
2.1.3.4 Collecting as connecting to external databases
While we hope to retain control over the electronic collections
held within our own library, we cannot be certain that external
databases will remain stable. Naturally, judgement is required in
making initial choices, especially with regard to those databases
subscribed to, but there is also a risk. The Queensland Parliamentary
Library's experience has been that a few suppliers have failed to
meet required standards due to software or financial problems, and
that certain valued databases on the Internet retain only current
items.
To provide a reasonable safety net the policy has been 'not to
put all our eggs in one basket'. A balance has been sought between
acquiring access to as many relevant databases as affordable, while
downloading on our library server, selected items of particular
value, to ensure they will be accessible when needed.
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2.1.4 Equipment and Networks Problems
Although hardware and software offer ever greater resources, there
are associated problems. To keep operational, the organisation is
virtually forced to replace hardware equipment on too frequent a
basis. Peter Cochrane, head of BT's Research Laboratory, believes
that if the present trend continues we will soon need a supercomputer
to draft an office memo.
The expansion in software size and complexity is now overtaking
the remarkable advances in computer speed and storage density. A
sustained doubling of hardware capabilities every 18 months since
1960 seems to be no match for applications that required 0.5Mbyte
of RAM 10 years ago, and now demand over 16Mbyte. We now have power
PCs apparently running slower than a 386 of only a few years ago.
...At the present rate of software expansion we will soon need a
supercomputer to write an office memo12.
2.1.4.1 Communications Downtime
Peter Cochrane also draws attention to productivity losses caused
by communications downtime and suggests that 'netquakes' as he coins
them, could be viewed as having similar disastrous consequences
as earthquakes and as such could attract a Richter-like scale of
measurement. He proposes the following formula to measure the impact
of a 'netquake' on clients:
On the earthquake scale, magnitude 6.0 marks the boundary between
minor and major events. Cochrane argues that we might calibrate
a magnitude 6.0 netquake to be represented by 100 computer terminals
off-line for 10,000 seconds (2.8 hours) while highlighting the fact
that 10 terminals off-line for 100,000 seconds (28 hours), or 1,000
terminals off-line for 1,000 seconds (16.8 minutes) etc. will give
the same result14.
The proposal to grade degrees of computer network downtime is desirable
as it provides a useful reference tool for gauging lost service
availability either for clients or for parliamentary library officers
acting on their behalf. We need to consider the lost productivity
and service downgrades caused by crashing of local area networks,
as well as problems on wide area networks such as the Internet.
This is especially true as parliamentary libraries may increasingly
rely on access via subscriptions to full text electronic journals
and other works which were previously held in hardcopy within their
respective libraries.
2.1.4.2 Electromagnetic hot-spots
A gauge similar to that used for Netquakes has been introduced
in Australia as a rating measure for the effects caused by electromagnetic
hot-spots. According to Dick Davies15
of the electromagnetic compatibility and interference laboratories
of RFI Industries, malfunctions are grouped by categories. For example
a 'grade one' could be a fuel gauge that does not work because the
mobile phone is being used. An example of a 'grade three' could
be a car's electric seat repositioning itself while you are driving,
a 'grade five' could be a microprocessor that stops the front wheel
while the car is being driven at high speed.
Although the above examples of hot-spots relate to automobiles,
it is possible that problems may arise within parliamentary libraries
as a result of electronic equipment being affected by other activators.
In the past within the Queensland Parliamentary Library, we experienced
difficulties instigated by sudden surges of electricity. Australia
is investigating standards on electronic immunity.
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2.2 DISTRIBUTED ELECTRONIC COLLECTIONS
Parliamentary libraries in general can no longer be viewed as being
located in fixed geographical locations. The total collection in
any given library may well be distributed. For example, within the
Queensland Parliamentary Library our inhouse collections of hardcopy
material is complemented by our archived collection in another section
of Brisbane. In addition, our large collection of inhouse digital
material is complemented by our external Infotrac database accessible
via the Internet. This database accommodated on the Gale Group's
computer on the other side of the world, has been customised to
our definitions on Concord for ease of client searching, and represents
a subscription arrangement enabling 5 concurrent online users at
any point in time.
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2.3 GROWTH OF MANKIND'S KNOWLEDGE
2.3.1 Information Processing and management
The increase in published material in printed or digital form presents
a challenge to those attempting to effectively manage resources,
and has resulted in the implementation of information management
systems to cope with electronic documents, bibliographic control
and related support systems. Simultaneously, machines have become
more powerful. Chris O'Malley argues that microprocessors may have
to find new ways and materials by 2003 as "chip researchers
have now gone as microscopic as the 0.25- to 0.01 - micro wire of
chip, over 400 times thinner than a hair strand. Bell scientists,
he claims, have also reduced transistor size by four times, or to
60 nanometers."16 Planning continues
for smarter computers. Robots and cyborgs will be considered for
future options.
2.3.2 Specialist knowledge
With regard to research work, while not denying potential input
from artificial intelligence, emphasis is placed on the claim that
"it is no longer possible to be an expert in anything other
than a few virginal topics."17
As the exponential growth in knowledge continues, the skills of
the generalist become increasingly important as does the use of
electronic systems to serve as intermediaries between different
information pools. Examples of useful applicable techniques includes
visualisation technologies.
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2.4 HUMAN RESOURCES
In both the public and private sectors, computers have taken over
many tasks previously handled by humans. Simultaneously, the exponential
growth in human knowledge and published information has meant that
parliamentary libraries have needed to adapt to new challenges and
offer new ways of responding to change. To date, in spite of the
use of machines, human input has been an essential element in offering
a means of processing and assessing large amounts of data so as
to reduce the time needed by clients to cope with increasingly heavy
work loads. Consequently, while most parliamentary libraries in
Australia have been characterised by decelerated rates of staff
increase, most have been able to preserve establishment levels while
demonstrating productivity increases.
This has been achieved by the implementation of computer technology
and by acquiring staff with new types of skills, or the training
of existing staff to acquire additional skills. Staff within the
research and reference services have, in addition, needed to adjust
to the impact of the exponential growth in human knowledge and technology.
In many cases new procedures have been introduced to cater for the
ways in which such dramatic increases have affected 'generalist'
and 'specialist' roles.
Managing libraries so as to reduce the time needed for acquiring
the necessary information retrieval skills (also applies to processing
functions) has become more important as the job market itself has
changed. For example, 20 years ago an employee tended to change
organisations less frequently than at present.
The impact of the Internet is far reaching. The sheer force of
the Internet to cut through geographical and professional barriers
has brought about a revolution which challenges past practices.
Collections of journals and other works in electronic form no longer
require large physical structures to house the information. Certainly,
existing skills can be built on so that parliamentary officers may
operate as useful intermediators between the chaos of the Internet
and the client who needs a 'Good Friday' agent. But of course there
is nothing to prevent other individuals (of whatever background)
from developing the necessary skills to provide competition to professional
librarians.
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2.5 WORK ENVIRONMENTS
Work environments have felt the impact of the electronic age. The
use of computers and networks in various areas raises the question
as to whether we can off-load many existing arrangements in favour
of more fluid way of contributing. It would seem that the ease of
access offered by automation can help to breakdown hierarchical
structures and provide greater delayering effects
Initially automated systems often mirrored the manual systems they
replaced, and within organisations, processes tended to be departmentalised
and defined into specialised areas of expertise. Software developments
now enable easy sharing of information throughout an organisation,
allowing for more effective linking of processes, so that overall
services can be handled more economically and efficiently. One simple
example of ease of sharing is the increasingly popular use of local
and international e-mail, both within individual parliamentary services
or groups of parliaments.
A more complex approach involves the use of Enterprise Resource
Planning (ERP) to correct the problem of organisational closed systems.
The closed type of structure can result in service problems arising
from one section not knowing what the other is doing. Electronic
integrated systems can allow processes and information to be shared.
The flow of information through the system can cover all types of
processes. Thus the full implementation of ERP can support all activities
of an organisation. One example is electronic document management
systems which enable information to be easily accessible to employees
across the network.
The electronic environment also encourages more flexible work hours
for certain categories of staff, and raises the issue of working
from home or elsewhere. As communication systems increase in sophistication,
and devices such as video phones render us more obviously accessible,
there may be even less emphasis on standard work hours and perhaps
a greater invasion on time presently regarded as private.
Videoconferencing offers additional benefits, but the technology
is not yet virtual enough to replace the advantages of personal
communication. However, future schemes are likely to overcome this
problem.
Increasingly, emphasis is placed on improving overall work environments.
Areas of consideration include safety aspects, lighting, air conditioning
systems and innovative design aspects. Consideration should be given
to ways of encouraging the type of interpersonal relationships that
lead to good teamwork. This should assist the library to reach projected
productivity targets and reduce unnecessary stress levels among
staff members.
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2.6 QUEENSLAND PARLIAMENTARY LIBRARY
Automation within the Queensland Parliamentary Library twenty-five
years ago, enabled the bulk of routine processing to be undertaken
so efficiently that it freed up a significant amount of professional
and para-professional staff time. This resulted in existing staff
being trained to acquire the necessary skills to offer new client
services. Back in the mid 70s great emphasis was placed by library
management on multi-skilling and articles of the time refer to the
emergence of 'hybrid' officers18.
The idea of hybrids will be taken a big step forward in the section
covering Robots and Cyborgs.
In 1971-72 only 22 percent of staff were engaged in client services
with 78 percent involved in technical services. By 1998 an indirect
benefit of the improved efficiency of our enhanced Concord system,
was that 65 percent of staff were able to contribute directly to
client services such as 'Research & Reference', 'Research Publications'
and 'TV News & Current Affairs' leaving a small staff component
(35 percent) to cope with a significantly increased processing and
indexing work-load. For example, prior to 1993, the annual number
of fully-indexed documents/articles entered on the database as citations
was approximately 37,000 per annum and only 2% of these (TV video
segments) were in electronic form. At present, 30 June 1999, the
total research databases are running at 76,000 document/articles
per annum. Approximately 30,000 of this total represents value-added
electronic items held in-house as part of the library collection.
Excluded are what constitutes our satellite areas, which together
with our inhouse works form our distributed collection - the hundreds
of thousands of externally held electronic articles and works subscribed
to by the library eg. Gale's Infotrac on the Internet, tailored
to our needs, and integrated as part of Concord Browser's search
engine.
Our CD Rom collection whose electronic files, in contrast, are
actually stored within the library, provides an example of the trend
towards reliance on LANs (Local Area Networks). The work of networking
the CD Rom collection was successfully implemented by library staffer
Kim Dowling19, and provides parliamentary
committee staff as well as library research officers with quick
access to pertinent information. It is envisaged that this type
of electronic source will grow over time.
Other external databases have not been included in the above as
they have not been integrated within our Concord Browser search
engine. Nevertheless they enrich the library's overall information
pool.
As more electronic data becomes available for access, and as the
nature of external providers frequently undergoes change, the library
constantly monitors existing policies and associated procedures,
so as to determine whether to rely more extensively on any given
external source. As a consequence, computer systems and staff scheduling
as well as training schemes have been designed to be as fluid as
possible so as to incorporate the means of achieving rapid change,
if required. Library management in particular needs to be in the
position to constantly adjust and adapt existing procedures with
maximum ease.
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3. FUTURE POSSIBILITIES
3.1 WE DO HAVE A FUTURE DON'T WE?
Probably we do have a future. However it has been claimed that
the possibilities of Earth suffering a catastrophic impact is one
in 100,000 per annum and that "there is more chance of an asteroid
destroying civilisation on Saturday night than you or I winning
the national lottery."20
Our Members frequently quote statistics in support of various claims,
and our staff acquire and tailor statistical material to serve parliamentary
needs. To quote an old joke, it could be pointed out that statistics
can be used as drunks use lampposts - for support rather than enlightenment.
Nevertheless, as the chances are low that a doomsday event will
occur within the next two or three decades, it would seem that the
future offers possibilities for parliamentary information services
that are both exciting and disturbing.
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3.2 SHORT-TERM POSSIBILITIES - GENERAL TRENDS
3.2.1 New types of computers
In spite of our impressive advances it has been pointed out that
architecturally task specific machines will win against general
machines running task orientated hardware. For example, the claim
has been made that Colossus, the World War II Bletchly Park code-cracking
computer is still faster than a powerful PC21.
While acknowledging the concern previously made that microprocessors
may have to find new ways and materials by 2003, there exists a
marked degree of optimism that computer resources will double at
less than 18-month intervals for at least another two decades. Certainly,
new types of supercomputer are being planned, and a quick glance
at some of the titles that have recently appeared in Science
and Science News, such as 'Neurons and silicon get intimate22,
What's a qubit, and do you want one?'23,
'Brewing a quantum computer in a coffee cup'24
and 'How to make a robot smile'25
give some indication of existing trends.
3.2.2 Will digital readers diminish demand for paper?
Paper is still popular because of its portability, convenience
and readability and it requires zero boot-up time. However if devices
to overcome existing difficulties could be developed, user acceptance
would grow as would the accessibility options for electronic collections.
This would also be good news for our world's forests which are being
depleted as 250 million tonnes of paper per annum are being produced26.
New digital reading devices need to be more flexible than existing
cathode ray tubes (CRSs) and liquid crystal displays (LCDs) with
materials offering similar contrast ratios to print. Also, slim
and lighter portable monitors that can be placed either flat on
surfaces or angled for convenience would offer advantages over existing
PCs. Although 'text to speech' and 'speech-to-text' software may
be helpful, the popularity of eye-scanning, will I think, continue
for some time. Back in the late 1970s Christopher Evans27
envisaged re-chargeable simulated books that would open to display
a highly acceptable reading surface for electronic data.
The good news is that new technologies are being developed to replace
standard CRSs and LCDs. IBM have developed new flat-panel technology
that has four times the resolution of Super XGA (1,280-by-1,024),
the best traditional desktop LCD display available. Instead of using
molybdenum and tungsten, aluminium and copper will be used for display
materials.
"The result is Roengen, a 16.3-inch display with a resolution
of 2,560 by 2,048 pixels (over 5 million pixels with 200 dots per
inch). Although it will initially be available only for medical
imaging applications, once researchers figure out how to cut the
display's power consumption, it'll be on your laptop28.
3.2.3 Advantages of 'text-to-speech' and 'speech-to-text' devices
The development of voice command 'speech-to-text', 'text-to-speech'
and voice control will help to overcome some of the disadvantages
associated with the present need to use a keyboard, display and
mouse, as small portable devices will be able to function without
them. User-friendly voice command could be used by clients and researchers
to activate online searching without the need for keyboard or mouse.
The portability advantage would offer flexible options - no need
to be fixed at a particular desk.
3.2.4 Digital mobile phones linked to other tools
In the future mobile phones could be realised on a single chip.
Already digital phones the size of soap bars have been produced
and can respond to voice command. When linked to other portable
devices the digital phone's usefulness is reinforced. For example,
the new Ericsson T18 is practically weightless, accepts voice commands;
innovative voice activated answering and voice rejection; flip control;
a silent vibrating option; 3-line full graphic display; dual band
for international roaming; standby time of up to 100 hours and full
data, fax and e-mail capabilities.
It is compatible with Ericsson's D127. An IRDA infrared hardware
modem enables wireless connectivity to the widest range of laptops,
PDAs and hand-held devices such as the Psion Series 5, 3Com Palm
III and Windows CE.
It also provides control with call waiting, hold, divert and transfer,
supports SIM Application Toolkit, enabling network feature flexibility,
allows for conference conversation with 5 other parties and offers
a few other features29.
3.2.5 Electronic Notebooks
Electronic notebooks are also becoming smaller and more impressive.
Sony's VAIO C1 Windows 98 notebook incorporates the power of sight
with a fully integrated digital camera. The integrated MOTION EYE
camera can capture still images and digital video with full 180
degree rotation. By showing the camera a cybercode marked document,
it will launch files, programs and features automatically. It supports
recording video directly to the C1. The user can extract required
frames.
Text images and video can be combined in a single document and
exported to HTML. There are link options to your mobile phone. If
the user takes multiple photographs of any scene the C1 stitches
them together for panoramic impact. Digital catalogues and animated
sideshows can be created with the C1's image management software,
allowing you to carry your showroom with you. It also supports visual-mail,
enabling photos and video to be sent direct over the net. It weighs
1.1kg including battery and measures 240x38x140mm.
3.2.6 Palmtops
One new example is Psion's Series 5mx palmtop which connects to
the internet using a mobile phone or modem, allowing the user to
send and receive email, SMS, and faxes on the move. It supports
synchronisation of PC email with Series 5mx, browsing the internet
and bookmarking favourite sites.
This palmtop also incorporates a useful organiser and links directly
to a PC with PsiWin, enabling the exchanging, editing of files and
cutting and pasting of data between PCs and Series 5mx. It also
supports familiar PC-compatible applications such as wordprocessing
and spreadsheeting, together with other extra features. Its touch
type keyboard allows you to create documents on the move and up
to 4,000 pages of information can be accommodated30.
3.2.7 Portable scanning pens
The C Pen by C Technologies AB is quite easy to use. It copes
with scribbled notes, articles from journals, newspapers etc. Weighing
only 100g, it is in fact an upgradeable computer with an 8Mb memory
that can copy printed text, translate it into a computer format
and transfer it to a PC.
It is marked as being able to scan text at 100 characters per second
and can store up to 3,000 pages. In addition, it supports its own
dictionary and address book and has the appearance of a highlighter31.
This C Pen could facilitate the work of parliamentary researchers
by enabling super-quick ways of selecting relevant sections of hardcopy
as it is initially read, and converting the captured text to electronic
form. At the user's convenience the selections can be incorporated,
possibly as quoted references within a research report being compiled.
Already, within parliamentary libraries it is common practice for
researchers during the compilation of a research response to scan
electronic text, block copy and paste suitable quotes as part of
a switching windows transaction.
3.2.8 Advantages of electronic reference copies
Instead of loaning hardcopy, originals in electronic form would
remain in the collection and works required by clients could be
provided as floppies, or simply downloaded directly into a digital
reading device or sent via communication networks to a Member's
office. Thus electronic collections coupled with acceptable tools
of access would help overcome problems caused by works being 'out
on loan' when required.
Meanwhile, as parliamentary libraries still hold large collections
of hardcopy, a recent British demonstration using a robot librarian
is worth mentioning. At the Information Show at Birmington (June
1999)32, viewers were shown how people
who persistently fail to return library books or other borrowings
on time could receive an unsocial midnight phone call in future
from a robot librarian.
The system has been automated so that the first reminder is very
polite. The tone and messages of subsequent reminders become increasingly
less so. Such a system, modified for parliamentarians' needs (there
would be no midnight call made), could be considered to render existing
loans systems more efficient.
3.2.9 Collective electronic purchasing
As subscribing to electronic databases may present cost problems,
the concept of collective electronic purchasing is gaining
in popularity. It is currently being considered within the Queensland
Parliamentary Library. One interesting overseas example is The VIVA
project - the Virtual Library of Virginia33.
The purpose of VIVA is to create a network of shared electronic
resources for students and faculty. With cooperative electronic
purchasing VIVA participants have been able to offer their clients
an enhanced range of resources. Possibly APLA could consider forming
a collective electronic purchasing group.
3.2.10 Communications Technology
We have not yet achieved the superhighway. Network systems have
been implemented but it has been argued that we need to simultaneously
access in a united way telephony, broadcast radio and TV, the Internet
and more. In Cochrane's opinion it is incorrect to assume that there
is an existing design for the information superhighway. He claims
that few network systems employ more that two (at most 3) of the
categories required. At present most of our networks have settled
for the lesser choice. Cochrane views our present state of communications
as follows34:
The telephone network - footpath;
Cable & broadcast TV - a one-way street,
LANs - a road under constant repair
Cellular radio - a country lane
3.2.11 Smart Cards & Chips
Already Queensland Parliamentary Service staff are required to
wear identity tags. The logical next step would be for such cards
to be smartened up so that useful information could be incorporated
on the card. This would cover parliamentary service staff clients
and could be extended to Members. It would enable library works
(hardcopy and electronic) to be loaned and discharged; online access
to approved databases activated without having to recall passwords,
and physical access provided to authorised sections of the library
without necessitating the physical presence of a library officer.
The information held on smart cards need not be limited to parliamentary
areas. It could be extended to include all the information an individual
needs at their finger-tips.
The next step might be to overcome security problems associated
with lost or misplaced cards, and also the inconvenience of having
to remember to wear them. Whether we approve or not, already local
councils are tagging our canines with bar coded identity tags. It
has been suggested that instead of having to wear our cards, we
could consider having tiny chip implants just under the skin. This
has already been achieved with wristwatches and it is possible that
future policy makers will give it serious consideration. Whether
or not any legislation that may eventuate contains a clause rendering
parliamentarians exempt is another matter. The technology already
exists to implement the process, including the updating of such
implanted chips. Naturally, all sorts of ethical concerns need to
be considered.
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3.3 IS BIG SISTER A FRUITCAKE?
3.3.1 The ages of 'Big Brother', 'Big Sister' and 'Little BigIT'
Future trends are likely to provoke the charge that the Age
of Big Brother has truly arrived. An Australian precedent has
been established whereby the naming of cyclones involves alternating
between female and male given names. In line with this egalitarian
precedent it is proposed that we refer to the next technological
stage as the Age of Big Sister. To show we are not bigoted,
this could be followed by the Age of Little BigIT, when less
may be more.
Why Big Sister? Big sisters are as prevalent as big brothers.
Egalitarian treatment is sought, but perhaps an allusion could be
made to recent research highlighting the differences between male
and female brains. It is claimed by Robin McKie that on average,
males have a thinner Corpus callosum (the large bundle of nerves
serving as a conduit through which our cerebral hemispheres communicate)
than females35. His assessment is
that while males tend to do better in certain areas of brain function,
females have a tendency to use both sides of the brain and adopt
a more holistic approach. Perhaps this could be viewed as engaging
in wider area networking.
As the buzz words in the present context are 'communication' and
'coordination' and as a truly holistic approach is appropriate to
tackle our present technological challenge, it may be acceptable
to view the next interesting stage as a feminine one, with the understanding
that Big Sister may shortly be replaced by a cyborg or quantum
machine. Little BigIT who follows, could be either gender, or in
true quantum quirkiness may exist in multiple gender states. IT
may also exist simultaneously in states of littleness and bigness.
Why the word fruitcake? Decades ago a popular fruitcake
was marketed as Big Sister. In the 1950s the phrase 'a
regular fruitcake' was a popular way of denoting a person characterised
by off-beat ideas. Some of the ideas now presented for consideration
may well seem off-beat and decidedly odd by to-day's standards,
hence the question: Is Big Sister a fruitcake?
3.3.2 Future developments in computing power
3.3.2.1 Biological information processing
If we assume, as has been predicted, that the present rate of progress
continues with a doubling of technology's abilities every 18 or
even 12 months, and assuming we continue inventing on the way, we
would, according to Cochrane be able to match the information processing
density of a bacterium, in silicon, around the year 2020. To demonstrate
the significance of this comparison between carbon-based and silicon
systems, Cochrane gives an example of a single flake of dead skin
falling from the human scalp on a keyboard. He then points out that
on this tiny flake a bacterium can store and process up to 10 Gbytes36.
Our most powerful PCs do not appear so impressive when compared
with a bacterium and it would seem that we are still a long way
from equalling biological information processing.
However there are interesting signs of things to come in the form
of Quantum computers, robots and cyborgs.
3.3.2.2 Quantum Computers
3.3.2.3 Qubits and quantum algorithms
Although still in the early stage of development, quantum computers
may offer unprecedented speed increases over the next few decades.
Quantum computers work from an entirely different model of computation
derived from the quantum-mechanical nature of physical reality.
The smallest unit of information is a quantum bit, or qubit.
Qubits don't behave in an on/off, binary way. Instead, they exist
in multiple states simultaneously, so they can process multiple
computations in parallel37.
There are additional features to Quantum computers:
Qubits interact like waves, with in-phase qubits reinforcing
and out-of-phase qubits cancelling. Quantum algorithms-programs
that compute with qubits and run on a quantum computer-take advantage
of this wavelike behaviour, representing a problem in a way that
lets the correct answer be reinforced and lets all the wrong answers
be cancelled out. For these reasons, qubits can represent vastly
more information than classical bits. Computational speed can be
exponentially faster for some problems38.
Peter Shor of AT&T Labs in the mid 1990s produced a quantum
algorithm for factoring integers that is believed to work exponentially
faster than any classical algorithm39.
In 1996, Lov Grover of Bell Labs produced a quantum algorithm for
searching through unsorted data in a database. His algorithm represented
a 5,000-fold speed-up when compared with a classical algorithm.
It was claimed that an even faster response could have been achieved
had the database been bigger. The significant results were explained
in terms of multiple records being explored simultaneously40.
3.3.2.4 Big Sister's jam jar
Cochrane argues that to overcome the problems presented by our
present class of machines we should look to the possibilities of
the quantum computer. He explains that if we could use the states
of elementary particles, such as electrons and protons (or smaller)
as analogues of today's transistors we could get the world's computing
power into a jam jar of fluid41.
As he views it, the advantage of a quantum computer would be the
ability to "examine all paths, states, and solutions to a problem
simultaneously". This he explains would be possible because
particles have a quantum nature, with states defined by spin or
dispersed location42.
3.3.2.5 Little BigIT's first quirky steps
It is still early days. A quantum computer has recently achieved
the not so remarkable ability of calculating that 1 plus 1 equals
2. However it could be likened to the first steps of a baby. It
has been predicted that:
A practical quantum computer will be with us in another 10 or
so years, and perhaps on our desks 10 years after that. If this
turns out to be true, it will give us undreamed of computing abilities43.
3.3.2.6 Quantum Teleportation
The process of teleporting may become important in the development
and operation of quantum computers and information systems. Less
than two years ago scientists succeeded in making information appear
to leap instantaneously from one place to another without passing
through the intervening space44.
It should be stressed that the process involves transporting characteristics
of particles as distinct from the particles themselves45.
The process would accomplish the instantaneous transfer of the
quantum state of one particle to another, which could be at the
other end of a room or across the galaxy. In effect, that quantum
state could be thought of as a message46.
Unlike a conventional bit, which must represent either 0 or 1,
a qubit represents a mixture of 0 and 1 called a superposition.
"Only when a measurement is actually made, which destroys the
superposition, is the qubit forced into a specific value."
However, a qubit can only cope with one nugget of information, but
recently it has been shown experimentally that quantum teleportation
using light beams, made up of many photons, may be able to carry
much more information, hopefully enough to support practical computing47.
To achieve teleportation, an aspect labelled 'entanglement' is
exploited. Wolfgang Tittel and his colleagues in Geneva succeeded
in extending entanglement across a 10.9 kilometer space between
two villages48.
3.3.2.7 A Quantum Internet?
It is argued that the quirks of quantum mechanics may result in
better computer networks49. A quantum
internet is viewed as being a future possibility. It is perceived
as being a more complex web than our existing Internet and would
utilise communication capabilities not possible with conventional
technology.
Each node of a quantum network would be a quantum computer. Such
machines would calculate and perform logical operations using delicate
strings of entangled qubits, each in a superposition of many states.
So far no more than three-qubit, rough-hewn calculating experiments
have appeared in labs. Not until that qubit number grows to thirty
or forty and a robust technology emerges will quantum computers
begin to make their mark50.
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3.4 IMPACT ON PARLIAMENTARY INFORMATION SERVICES
If scientists succeed in developing viable quantum computers, along
with quantum networks, it is envisaged that almost all of the outstanding
classical mathematical and physical science problems could be solved
in minutes by such machines. It was also suggested that perhaps
a key contribution would be "the ability to model people, society
and change51,''
It must be stressed that it is still early days and much needs
to be achieved before we can confidently take such developments
for granted. Certainly if the quantum computers and associated networks
become well established, the impact on existing parliamentary libraries
could be far reaching. It would no longer be a simple matter of
gaining faster processing times or instant responses to our online
searches.
Christopher Evans argued in the 1970s that within decades machines
would overtake man. He referred to them as ultra intelligent machines
(UIMs). Evans envisaged these UIMs as like having the wisest, most
knowledgeable humans on earth available where and when they are
wanted52. Peter Cochrane agrees that
in the future there will be man, woman and machine, "a partnership
of carbon and silicon-based life and intelligence with technology
augmenting our species."53
This brings us to face the possibility that the term 'parliamentary
library staff' could take on a whole new meaning. Parliamentary
research and information services would need to be restructured
to exploit the new possibilities, and there is no certainty that
humans would be the ones undertaking the restructuring.
3.5 ROBOTS AND CYBORGS
3.5.1 Moravec's 'children of our minds'
Hans Moravec, a robotics expert, believes that robots will surpass
humans physically and mentally by 2050 and that the latter may be
relegated to the status of pets or worse. In contrast to the claim
that it could take centuries for computers to acquire human intelligence,
Moravec believes that this can be achieved within decades, assisted
by breakthroughs such as "molecule-sized switches, data bits
stored in individual atoms, and quantum-level computers."54
Moravec envisages "robot corporations governed by superhuman
thought, owned only nominally by people." He predicts that
such robot corporations will repair, reproduce and even redesign
themselves at will, while they continue learning, conducting scientific
research and exchanging information55.
3.5.1.2 A 'Bush Robot' in a parliamentary library
Moravec believes that the machines will model themselves after
successful biological forms. Could that possibly apply to us, the
human component within parliamentary libraries?
It has already been argued that general purpose machines such as
our existing PCs were found wanting when compared with architecturally
designed task orientated models. Perhaps Moravec's 'Bush Robot'
would appeal to the environmentally conscious amongst us. On second
thoughts perhaps not if we envisage something country-like and relaxing.
Consider its remarkable features:
"twenty-five branchings would connect a meter-long stem
to a trillion fingers, each a thousand atoms long and able to move
about a million times per second."56
As a shelf filer it would probably get hopelessly entangled in
narrow filing bays, no doubt knocking a few over in its haste to
outperform itself and all others within view. Of course, it could
always use its superior intelligence to transform itself into a
form appropriate for shelf filing (assuming there will be any hardcopy
around to file), but my prediction is that it would make a rush
for the Research and Reference area.
The question is posed. Will our self-designing robot simulate human
form? This may depend on the nature of our future parliamentary
clients. Will they themselves be robots, or cyborgs, and if so will
they assume human or other types of biological or machine form?
Assuming that the parliamentarians are either human or machines
in human form, then perhaps our former 'Bush Robot' could acquire
useful design techniques by studying the work that has already been
undertaken by Professor Fumio Hara57
of the Science University of Tokyo. Hara's team have produced a
generation of robots that can identify human facial expressions
and then respond to them. Under test conditions his representative
robot performed as follows:
The robot was surprisingly accurate, correctly guessing the expressions
of test subjects, on average, 85 percent of the time. It also fared
equally well as a facial actor. In fact, a group of students correctly
identified the robot's expressions 83 percent of the time. By comparison,
the same students identified the facial expressions of professional
actors 87 percent of the time58.
The robots are amazingly life-like in appearance. The aluminium
head has 18 air-pressure-driven micro-actuators or tiny gears to
mimic facial movements. A face cast in silicone rubber from a human
mould is enhanced with natural hair wig, rouged cheeks and fitted
teeth. Tiny wires from the actuators are hooked to the mask so as
to recreate the action units to reproduce desired expressions. The
robots's head and eyeballs are also engineered to allow humanlike
movements. A tiny camera inserted in the left eye scans a human
face from a position of one meter. A computer connected to the camera
determines the person's expression by searching for brightness variations
in different areas of the face, as well as changes occurring in
dark areas which can provide clues59.
Having absorbed and applied the information provided by Hara's
research work our 'Bush Robot' will be able to acquire the basic
skills needed to develop a professional, courteous manner appropriate
for Front Desk duties. Using a neural-network-based self-training
program, (as did Hara's robots) the computer will eventually recognise
within 60 milliseconds how changes in the brightness patterns of
an individual's face relate to the expressions of a given feeling60.
Such processing speed will enable 'Bush Robot's' silicone face
to respond to changes in a parliamentarian's expression with human-like
speed. Our robot would have no problem responding to client enquiries.
Its superior IQ combined with its network links to superior quantum
computers would render it an efficient officer.
Moravec's view is that the 'children of our minds' will be our
evolutionary heirs61.
3.5.2 Present realities
Moravec's vision of the future is speculative, and it is too early
to determine whether or not the envisaged developments will ever
be realised. However significant progress has already occurred in
the field of robotics and robots have been designed to take on increasingly
complicated tasks.
One concern that has been expressed is that if robots surpass us
physically and mentally we may end up being treated as working dogs.
If this situation were to occur in the future, would it represent
something new or is it already with us in our present Age of
Big Brother?
3.5.2.1 Will chip implants control parliamentary library
staff?
Previous reference was made to new regulations under which our
dogs will be electronically tagged for identification purposes.
It is of concern to realise that humans themselves are being considered.
Stephen Bevan, writing for the Sunday Times commences his
article Companies seek chip implants to control staff with
the following words.
BIG BROTHER could soon be watching from the inside62.
Bevan claims that several international companies, as well as representatives
from police forces in Britain and the United States, are consulting
cybernetics experts on ways of developing microchip implants for
their workers to measure their timekeeping and whereabouts. It would
appear that Professor Kelvin Warwick of Reading University gained
media attention when he had a silicon chip transponder surgically
implanted in his forearm. He successfully demonstrated how a computer
could monitor every move he made by using detectors that were placed
around his work environment. The implanted chip activated lights,
computers and heating systems on entering rooms, turning them off
on exiting.
The report, explaining that the technology is relatively cheap
to implement at just a few pounds per person, quotes Professor Warwick
as follows:
For a business the potential is obvious. You can tell when people
clock into work and when they leave the building. You would know
at all times exactly where they were and who they were with63.
It is difficult to imagine Australian employees being asked to
accept such implants, but what if such a scheme were offered in
the near future by government as part of a tax deduction incentive,
or even as part of an enterprise bargaining deal?
3.5.2.2 Creative workplaces
The argument goes that a newly-designed environment that encourages
more flexible ways of working can bring about a change in culture.
Emphasis seems to be placed on providing areas to contemplate away
from the hum of busy equipment and electronic tidal waves of e-mail.
British Airways' new business centre is a 'roam-free' building designed
by Neils Torp. It uses cordless technologies to allow staff to work
away from the desk, and offers an 'olive grove' for contemplation
where mobile phones must be switched off. Arthur Anderson has commissioned
a London office where colour is used to stimulate creativity and
where fish tanks contribute to a 'Zen' environment for quiet work64.
Some companies have attempted to use the topology of medieval towns
to space-plan their working areas, with "emphasis on 'village
neighbourhoods' and 'town squares'65.
Such working environments with focus on simulation may offer ideal
backgrounds for Peter Cochrane's design for the office you wear.
3.5.3 Peter Cochrane's design for 'the office you wear' and
Virtual TV66
3.5.3.1 The office you wear
Peter Cochrane proposes that the electronic functionality he requires
for his office could be reduced in size and weight by integrating
some of the components.
Today, economically priced cellular telephones employ 3 integrated
circuits. However, it is feasible to reduce this to 1, requiring
only 1W of power. Similarly, a laptop computer can be reduced to
2 chips consuming just 2W, with another 3W for the LCD screen (mostly
for back-lighting).
A further impediment to realising the office I wear is the
requirement for a keyboard. But perhaps this could be overcome
by voice I/O. Today, voice synthesis is just about adequate for
text-to-speech, whilst speech-to-text still leaves a lot to be
desired and will probably require a further 5 years of evolution
before it can fully replace the keyboard.
An intermediate solution might be tenable with the minimal
keypad or stylus input. Alternatively, a foldaway keyboard for
transportation in pocket and case could be plugged in when necessary
along with a head-mounted screen giving high-definition access
direct into the eye67.
Cochrane claims that all of the separate parts are already available
and that the wearable office could be powered by our own body. He
reasons as follows:
Sitting still, we radiate approximately 60W from our torso and
head. When animated, this can exceed 100W and is a potential source
of power to drive an office we can wear. Alternatively, the process
of walking and moving at a casual rate can generate over 10W68.
3.5.3.2 Looking Chipper
With regard to what could be worn at the office, Cochrane ponders
what new materials might promote, with active programming of colour
and pattern through heat sensitivity or changing electrostatic charge.
He considers the possibility of electronically programming text,
graphics, animation shape and size and connecting a dress or shirt
to a PC and loading on desired pictures or animation.
The possibility is presented of using clothes as a means of communication,
of switching styles as we enter our work place or move between areas.
He anticipates that fabricating surfaces will be produced offering
much greater attributes than what is presently available.
Manipulating individual atoms to create specific structures with
great precision, including molecules and smaller, will blur the
difference between bits and atoms - ultimately they may become the
same. This then poses the further prospect of embedded intelligence
in everything. If our skin is a smart material, with more processing
in a single flake that the most powerful PC so far created, then
why not our clothing and other materials? Ultimately, really smart
materials, communicating at the molecular level, could see new revolutions
in healthcare and transport69.
3.5.3.3 Virtual TV
Cochrane argues that it is essential to surpass the VHS controller
and even the PC. He supports the coalescing of computers and communications
and enabling a Video On Demand service where the viewer would ultimately
have access to all the video material imaginable, accessible in
libraries, shopping malls, etc.
To overcome the problem of selecting a programme from thousands
or more options he recommends the use of artificial intelligence
primed to learn our changing interest profile.
Such a system could even provide a degree of serendipity as it
learns about us, and offers opportunities to see this or that film,
purchase this or that watch…An electronically generated short-form
preview - the essence of the film, or opportunity, compressed into
a few minutes - is already possible70.
Cochrane suggests we need to move to immersive systems with large
(wall sized) flat-panel, head or eye-mounted displays to realise
total interaction.
This might seem far-fetched, but there is nothing here that has
not already been tried in research laboratories…a more immediate
and available technology employs miniature TV cameras mounted at
eye level, with microphones above the ears - a surrogate head. The
output of this device can be coupled to a VR headset. So, if you
wear the VR headset, and I the surrogate head, then you effectively
stand inside me looking out. What I see you see, what I hear you
hear, and soon - what I feel you will feel. Why be limited to two
people when we can broadcast to millions?71
3.5.3.4 Relevance to parliamentary libraries
Cochrane's vision of 'the office you wear' could in certain situations
be relevant for parliamentary staff. Officers attending national
or international conferences, or on the move for miscellaneous purposes,
would be more accessible and arrayed with the necessary equipment
in order to function effectively. The bonus would be the lightweight
characteristic of the overall apparel which contrasts with present
equivalent equipment that would need to be lugged around.
As for the futuristic multi-tasking clothing, the use of animated
messages could help promote library services, or alert Members to
special publications, seminars or other events. The fabric could,
perhaps, with the help of future computers help library officers
adapt to any niggling air flows associated with capricious air conditioning
systems. There are still in existence parliamentary libraries where
officers change jackets from light to medium to heavy-weight as
they move between one area and the next.
The future possibility of intelligence embedded in fabric worn
or incorporated within our office surroundings, including the furniture,
opens up a new world of possible options. We could be alerted to
disturbances in our biological systems. The materials could self-adjust
to a range of external influences such as radiation emissions and
increased level of pollens. A de-bugging activity could be activated
if a sneeze or cough dared to present itself, thus saving the rest
of us from falling victim.
The fabric worn (including shoes) could increase or decrease in
thickness or insulational properties, possible only in hot or cold
spots in accordance with changing temperatures. Printed paper or
its equivalent, could erase itself if required for a re-run through
the printer. Water repellent activators could go into overdrive
at the first hint of rain water leaks targeting library collections
or equipment.
Office rubbish bins could take care of any contamination before
it hit the nose. Whether as has been suggested somewhere, we would
want toilets to yap back at us giving us the run-down on our state
of health and even advice on diet is questionable. There may be
the fear that Big Sister could be listening. Another health-orientated
option could be embedded muscle-massagers that intelligently target
only those body parts in need of it. All of course aimed at increasing
the likelihood of keeping a team of staff in top working form to
better realise the library's mission.
Virtual TV for parliamentary information services seems worthy
of further investigation. If, as is claimed, the described technology
exists, then costs could be the problem. Cochrane gave an interesting
explanation as to how artificial intelligence could help overcome
the difficulty of retrieving pertinent programmes from a choice
of say 10,000 or more. While adopting a positive attitude towards
systems able to focus on profiles of client's interests, it could
be mentioned that within the Queensland Parliamentary Library, the
time required to provide value-added subject indexing is insignificant.
It takes the equivalent of 4 officers to provide comprehensive value-added
indexing to approximately 42,000 of the 76,000 items a year added
to the Research Databases. Only 1661 of these are TV segments. This
is achieved by using the Concord software which offers effective
online retrieval, as well as automatic linking of records to user
profiles.
The idea of providing an electronically generated short-form preview
- the essence of the segment - would offer further advantages and
should be explored. Perhaps TV stations already do this or are considering
it for their own use?
The possibility of a portable human-powered Virtual TV set, perhaps
with a fold-up surrogate head/VR headset integrated with the portable
office, is something worth thinking about. There are already occasions
within parliamentary libraries when it would offer the ideal solution.
Perhaps where our clients are concerned it could represent even
greater advantages. Because of the nature of their responsibilities
Members tend to be constantly on the move, frequently travelling
around their constituencies and to and from Parliament. Perhaps
the surrogate headpiece may render Members difficult to identify,
but of course the intelligence embedded within their clothes could
always proclaim their presence by an animated image, previously
captured from the electronic version of the Members' handbook.
Within the Queensland Parliamentary Library, such equipment as
the portable super office you wear, even the basic one would enable
Members to gain quick 24-hour access to our research databases,
and to download any useful text items on the run.
It is understood that most of the technology for Virtual TV has
already been tried in research laboratories. If after further investigation,
it appears to offer benefits, then prohibitive costs should not
be a deterrent for parliamentary libraries. There is always the
possibility, no matter how slight, that private research organisations
might deem Parliament an appropriate place to undertake pilot studies
as a means of gaining more widespread publicity and approval.
If one's own parliament is not likely to be successful, then perhaps
through IFLA, the attention of other parliaments could be brought
to the issue. It would only take one parliament to undertake a pilot
study to ensure that the project would receive world wide parliamentary
attention. The ongoing conferences of Presiding Officers as well
as business visits from parliamentarians increases the likelihood
of pilot studies and their outcomes attracting attention.
For years we have all been anticipating digitised networks, yet
back in the 1980s a subsidiary company of BT pioneered a fully digitised
telephone system which was implemented for the general public, long
before Britain or the rest of the world caught up72.
Naturally BT were the prime movers, but it would not have been possible
without the enthusiastic support of Parliament, the oldest continuous
parliament in the world. This occurred in an independent jurisdiction
where a considerable proportion of the native population still believe
in fairies.
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3.6 NEURONS AND SILICON
3.6.1 Back me up Scottie - backing-up the stuff of minds on
silicon
Hans Moravec, previously referred to in our discussion of robotics
and cyborgs, is convinced that some humans will want to become computers.
He anticipates a future where the technology for this will be possible.
Every human part, right down to the neurons of the brain, will
be replaceable with a superior artificial substitute. In addition,
humans will be able to upload themselves into computers and live
forever as bits of data flowing through bodies of hardware73.
Are Moravec's predictions far-fetched? Do others share his view?
It is impossible to know what the future holds. Certainly the general
trends outlined by Moravec are supported by some experts.
A few prominent neurophysiologists are currently toying with the
idea of creating a 'secondary brain' for newborn babies74.
The idea involves implanting at birth a microchip into a baby's
head. The plan is that the chip would be able to record every experience
the brain has as it occurs and store the same information as the
natural brain. The chip could be viewed as a backup - a back-up
brain. The idea put forward is that when the human dies the chip
would be removed and plugged into a new-born baby, enabling its
owner to have the advantage of experience gained from the former
'life'. Mention is made of the possibility of the technology of
human cloning and the way in which combining such a process with
the transplanted chip could virtually give an individual the possibility
of living forever.
Cochrane's comments tend to be similar to Moravec's in that he
is discussing backing up on a machine, rather than transplanting
a chip containing the results of such a backup into a new born baby.
He argues that we might be able to transfer mental awareness and
capacity to a computer, pointing out that as we age and die, the
rich information base acquired over a lifetime of reacting to environmental
experience is lost. His prediction is that it will be possible in
the future to transfer a biologically developed brain to an electronically
manufactured brain, to transfer the stuff of minds into a silicon
form to achieve a 'carbon-silicon mix'75.
3.6.2 Has the stuff of minds been backed-up on silicon before?
3.6.2.1 Searching across the boundaries of discrete disciplines
In the 19th century Denis O'Donovan, then Queensland Parliamentary
Librarian, produced an analytical catalogue which won world recognition
with the ability it offered for searching across discrete disciplines
to retrieve useful information. Since then the world's knowledge
has significantly increased. In 1974 the Queensland Parliamentary
Librarian, with limited funding, investigated ways of providing
an automated approach to retrieve from the library's growing collections.
By early 1999 the electronic components of the library's collections
were distributed. Thousands of full text articles/documents held
inhouse were complemented by access to subscribed electronic holdings.
3.6.2.2 An interesting search result
The following represents an online search being undertaken on electronic
data using a proximity Boolean 'AND' query on the following words:
'brains'; 'transform'; 'information'; 'knowledge'; 'records'; 'advanced
technology'; 'communications'; 'quantum physics'; 'libraries' and
'silicon'.
The most laboratory-trained neuroscientist could be excused for
being a little intrigued as his search displays paragraphs of text
alluding to centuries-old quartz crystal skulls. Such silicon skulls
(one resides in the British Museum), are revered by the indigenous
peoples of America who believe these objects of former civilisations
had been created by:
those who had wanted to transform their wisdom into crystal so
that it would not be lost, but would be contained in the libraries
of stone forever76.
The work containing the above paragraph, explains that the Meso-Americans
believed that we are all connected by an enormous web of crystalline
structure known as Grandmother Spider's Web, and that by
adopting the right mind-set, communication is possible between the
human mind and the silicon skulls which contain the backup of all
human consciousness and knowledge over time. They also believed
that as time is a circle rather than a straight line moving from
past to present to future, with the aid of these special silicon
tools, communications through or across time are possible. Certain
modern-day representatives of the Meso-Americans also believe that
the core of earth is made from crystal and that this facilitates
communication processes77.
Certainly some of the ideas conveyed by Meso-American philosophy
bring to mind Carl Jung's theory of 'the collective unconscious'.
Jung believed it contains wisdom that guides all humanity. Of course,
what we are commenting on at present are beliefs not established
facts.
3.6.2.3 Researchers' starting points for investigation
Of interest to us as custodians of records, specialising in the
organisation and dissemination of knowledge, is the way in which
appropriate information retrieval systems can be designed to search
across the boundaries of discrete disciplines and bring together
for the researcher, items which are likely to have meaningful relationships.
For example, back in the 1960s a researcher was delighted when a
librarian's multi-disciplinary manual search extracted an article
from an archaeological journal discussing the ways in which the
ancient Chinese drank certain concoctions as a form of birth control.
It turned out that this particular article was of direct relevance
to his research, but because the field was archaeology, it had escaped
being included in 'Chemical Abstracts', his specialised area of
searching78.
We are all familiar with the false drops which may result from
Boolean searching. The hope is to exclude what is not related, but
the references returned merely signify the starting point for further
investigation. Positive correlations frequently lead to dead ends,
and the importance of the research officers' work is to assess and
digest from material gleaned, the most pertinent points of interest
to their clients. This particular role is distinct from the initial
one, which is to be able to tap into the most relevant sources of
information so as to obtain the best possible coverage before the
real analysis commences. One of the benefits of being able to undertake
interdisciplinary searches across enriched electronic databases
is to increase the likelihood of valuable references being retrieved.
Having commented on the possibility of searching across the boundaries
of discrete disciplines, our next query is as follows: Is it possible
to search across the boundaries of time? The assumption is that
such an action would be taken to increase the likelihood our meeting
our objective.
3.6.2.4 Can we search across the boundaries of time?
While considering communication networks and how they may work
if quantum computers and quantum networks are successfully developed,
it seems appropriate to refer to Einstein's theory of relativity
which states that nothing in the universe can travel faster than
the speed of light. His theory also states that if you could travel
faster than the speed of light, you would be travelling backwards
in time, for time like everything else is relative79.
Various attempts have been made to test Einstein's theory. For
example, nearly thirty years ago two atomic clocks, based on the
precise electrical oscillations of a piece of quartz crystal, were
used in an experiment carried out by scientists from Hewlett-Packard.
One clock was flown around the world in a jumbo jet while the other
remained in the lab. The clock that had been flying at a speed of
only 600 mph or so did in fact show that less time had elapsed than
the control equivalent. The difference was only a fraction of a
second, but the result supported Einstein's predictions80.
Of greater significance is the result of a 1995 experiment carried
out by Professor Gunter Nimtz in a sub-atomic experiment at the
University of Cologne in Germany. The following quote outlines the
main details.
His experiment involved splitting in two a microwave signal containing
a message. One half of the signal was sent through air and so travelled,
like all microwave signals, precisely at the speed of light. This
signal arrived at its destination at precisely the same moment as
it was sent, as is common to all microwave signals. But for the
other half of the signal Nimtz tried something different. Across
its path he placed what is called a 'quantum barrier'. This is an
electronic barrier whose purpose is to prevent the transmission
of all sub-atomic particles including microwave signals. The idea
was to block all transmission of the signal along this path. In
fact, precisely the opposite happened.
In practice, the microwave signal which was sent across the
quantum barrier actually travelled at 4.7 times the speed of light
and was received before it had even been sent .Although over such
a short distance the effect observed was minuscule, a mere fraction
of a second, the results were still earth-shattering. As Nimtz
pointed out, if you could build a quantim barrier that stretched
from one side of the universe to the other, any message you sent
by this route would go faster than the speed of light and would
actually travel backwards in time. It would arrive at the other
side of the universe before you had actually sent it!81
Arguments arose from the debate that followed Nimtz's results.
However, the main consensus seems to be that such an effect may
be due to 'quantum tunnelling'. The idea is that stray sub-atomic
particles can in fact 'tunnel' through a quantum barrier in such
a way that they come out of the 'time tunnel' before they went in…it
relies on the idea that the precise position of an 'uncertain' quantum
particle is determined as much by its future position as by its
past"82.
3.6.2.5 Has the worm turned?
The area is complex and physicists are still debating the issues
involved. However, to obtain a quick overview of concepts relevant
to Nimtz's results, Stephen Hawking in The Illustrated A Brief
History of Time, provides an excellent illustration of how a
space traveller could use a wormhole, which is stationary with respect
to earth, as a shortcut to get from event A to B and then come back
through a moving wormhole and return to earth before he set out83.
3.6.2.6 Human detection capabilities and communication networks
According to one theory, both the human body and natural quartz
are constantly broadcasting electro-magnetic signals on an unheard
wavelength, and that we should think of the human body and mind
as having the capabilities of a radio system, capable of both transmitting
and receiving by means of as yet undetected electro-magnetic energy
waves.
Human detection capabilities in the average person are currently
estimated to be less than 2 per cent of the known wavelength spectrum.
This means that most of us are unaware of over 98 per cent of the
currently known events that surround us at all times84.
It is suggested that appropriate interaction with quartz crystal
would enable our human transmitting and receiving systems to function
effectively. If we accept Cochrane's proposal that our own body
power is sufficient to drive an 'office we can wear', and Frank
Dorland's view that as entities we are also capable of transmitting
and receiving, we would perhaps be placed in an ideal position to
acquire all sorts of unusual information on behalf of our Members.
However, I am not advocating we indulge in attempts at 'remote viewing'.
Of possible interest in this context is the work of certain scientists
whose investigations support the theory that the centre of Earth
contains a core of crystal approximately 1,200 km across85.
Related works on communication possibilities which assess the possible
relevance of Nicola Tesla's contributions and his concept of 'standing
waves'86, suggest that if Earth's
core does consist of crystal, it may be exploited in such a way
as to produce significant enhancements for the development of future
communications networks. At this stage however we are dealing with
hypotheticals.
3.6.3 Research developments on computer hardware combined with
biological matter
The idea of being able to backup a human brain onto a machine is
remarkable and if possible at some future time would have major
ramifications on the nature of parliamentary libraries. The possibilities
that some scientists envisage for quantum computers and communication
networks would also have dramatic impact. Prior to commenting on
this, it may be of interest to refer to progress that is being made.
Japan, Europe and the United States are funding programs for the
development of a new generation of devices based on living circuits87.
It is envisaged by neuroscientists that the new possibilities could
hold the key to thoughts and memories or become the building blocks
of living computers. In fact, all types of applications could result.
James Hickman at George Washington University in Washington DC,
has successfully created a pattern of hydrophobic (water-repellent)
and hydrophilic (water-loving) chemicals on a sliver of silicon88.
He grew his first circuit in 1998 and since the shape and direction
of growth are controlled, his circuit is entirely reproducible.
However, a chip that physically connects to nerves is still to be
developed.
One idea being worked on is that neurons could form the basis for
a portable sensor89. "Some researchers
have grafted genes for phosphorescence into neurons, to enable a
cell to light up when it detects a given chemical".
As nerve cells are cheap to make - they are small and run off glucose
- it has been proposed to build computing devices out of combinations
of neurons. Hickman has argued that as nerve cells come in inhibitory
or excitatory flavours, this makes the neurons they are connected
to more or less likely to fire. He envisages that by growing simple
combinations of inhibitory and excitatory neurons in the correct
patterns, they could function like logic gates, and that these living
logic gates could be combined with others to form higher units,
in the same way that transistors are combined to create microchips90.
In comparing the functions of such logic gates with a silicon chip,
Hickman points out that the use of neurons will result in much more
complex functions being achievable. Having been able to determine
the polarity of neurons by surface chemistry and having been able
to get signals in and out and make basic networks, the reality is
that much more needs to be achieved before we can determine whether
or not the circuits will really be practical as computing devices.
Also, reservations have been expressed in terms of the fast processing
achieved by silicon when compared with the slowness of biology.
Jerry Pine, a biophysicist at the California Institute of Technology
in Pasadena, is less optimistic and argues as follows:
"Neurons transmit messages to each other on time scales
of the order of milliseconds. However in a massively parallel computer,
processors send messages in nanoseconds - faster by orders of magnitude."91
In response to this concern, Hickman points out that a single neuron
achieves a huge amount of complicated processing in picoseconds
and then sends that processed information to the next cell. He agrees
that a supercomputer based on silicon is fast, but his argument
is that it has to be fast to compensate for its low complexity92.
To sum up, research work in the area continues but as it is not
yet known how neurons achieve what they do achieve, we can not be
certain that existing research will result in the supercomputers
predicted. It is however likely that existing research will provide
greater knowledge of the processes being examined. It may well be
that the work of scientists working in related areas, such as that
of Professor Susan Greenfield of Oxford University93,
who continues to explore the nature of mind and consciousness, will
serve to highlight common areas of importance.
3.6.4 Overall impact of super computers and associated networks
on future parliamentary libraries
Results from research developments indicate it is still early days.
The anticipated quantum computers and quantum networks may never
offer practical alternatives. If such be the case we can still look
forward to significant improvements in hardware, software and communications.
The implementation of world-wide fiber-optic networks alone would
contribute greatly to overall performance efficiency, so as to enable
greater reliance on distributed electronic collections. Many innovative
features such as the 'office that can be worn', as well as the possibility
of virtual TV, have already been successfully demonstrated and may
also enable our clients to gain better access to our services.
Assuming that quantum computers together with the Quantum Internet
do emerge and that these computers evolve into ultra-intelligent-machines
(UIMs), then it is likely that they will overtake humans. It has
also been speculated that they could possibly raise their own IQs
to two million on our macro-scale94.
It has been suggested that we have no clear evidence as yet of a
theoretical upper limit to intelligence, although some experts believe
that there could be an upper limit linked to increased 'electronic
noise' in massively complex systems that might result in 'fuzzy'
UIM functioning, as distinct to fuzzy logic95.
Such super UIMs may well be the best designers of future information
services and facilities. Already software has been developed with
sufficient artificial intelligence to write its own programmes.
Once we have passed the Age of Big Sister and are operating
in the Age of LittleBigIT, it may happen that there will
be no need for a Parliament. The general public could perhaps simply
vote electronically on issues as they arise using the equivalent
of present day TV sets.
Such a change could be viewed as the natural extension of the delayering
effects caused in recent years by the impact of automation in both
public and private sectors of the workforce. However, voting ad
hoc on issues as they arise may not be the best model for society's
future, and the parliamentary system may well remain.
Assuming that it does, there is no certainty that parliamentarians
themselves will not be machines or that their parliamentary information
services are not run by quantum computers, networking with others
of their kind on Quantum Intranets, Internets and possibly Outernets,
the latter extending across the galaxies.
In 1995 when Professor Nimtz of Cologne carried out an experiment
which allegedly resulted in a piece of information arriving at its
destination before it was actually sent, it signalled to the rest
of us that something really significant may have occurred. One approach
could be to decide that there must have been some misunderstanding
or mistake. Alternatively, we could ponder on the relevance it might
or might not have on future parliamentary information services.
In Nimtz's experiment the transmission distance was short and the
time difference amounted to only a fraction of a second. Therefore
we could be excused for reasoning that it could not have any practical
impact. However, if instead of humans we substitute UIMs, then it
is possible that within the fraction of a second, such a machine,
complemented by a superfast information superhighway, could well
provide a top quality response to a reference request within the
limitations being considered. This would mean that the actual response
could arrive back to the Member before the enquiry was actually
transmitted. Such an occurrence would give an entirely new meaning
to the term 'parliamentary information services'.
If instead of quantum computers, the staff consist of robots with
backed up human brains, management in the form of either human or
machine might face difficult issues in determining equity and other
considerations. Would the service become a virtual closed shop?
Would the same robots continue working for centuries or would they
be decommissioned, or restructured? Of course the excellent experience
gained by some could be mind boggling. This is but one example of
the type of concern that might arise.
Assuming that there has been a takeover by the UIMs, it could be
argued that these UIMs should have the ability to provide top quality
information responses which could, if incorporated in policy-making,
result in a restructuring of Australian society. Of course, assuming
the continuation of our existing democratic framework, it would
be expected that the UIMs within the government brigade would be
at the forefront in the presentation of innovative policy. Indeed
it would be anticipated that some sort of world restructuring would
have occurred and that the hawks of civilisation, presently
engaged, some argue, in the creation of a Pax Atlantica might
by that time have extended their sphere of influence into the southern
regions to form a Pax Globosus. This is mere speculation
and beyond the limits of our present concern.
The real advantage of our truly independent home-guard parliamentary
brigade of UIMs is that they could offer a very effective counter-force
to the type of pressure exerted by the government's UIMs. In the
event of any government UIM compromising its integrity by pursuing
other agenda, possibly as a result of wetware gone soft, or perhaps
a runaway process, identified as self-serving transmissions, the
parliamentary service machines could, in response to a Member's
request, hard-drive a special think-tank. Then, in the fraction
of a nanosecond, instigate recovery procedures while providing their
client with sufficient ammunition to threaten a de-bugging exercise
in the interest of overall integrity.
Some may argue that a takeover by UIMs would represent the end
of humankind. Surely this need not be the case. If machines simulate
humankind or if humans reach the stage of being able to backup the
'stuff of minds' on silicon or its equivalent, then perhaps what
is really happening, is that humankind is continuing to evolve in
more complex ways. Already some of our most cherished humans survive
because of implanted electronic parts. Surely we do not downgrade
their humanity by considering them to be, say, only 60 percent human?
Naturally, one of the real fears is that the human mind backed
up on silicon may be devoid of true consciousness and human feelings,
but there are indicators that this need not necessarily be so. Possibly
there is something we could do to ensure that a sense of humanity
prevails. All the more reason to give it our best attention. The
debate continues. It would seem that we have reached a turning point,
and that great emphasis should be focused on research into this
area of scientific development, along with the ethical considerations
that need to be addressed by all. Adequate funding may make the
difference between future UIMs working out their own agendas in
a chaotic electronic wilderness, or being set on a constructive
path with the aid of clear guidelines reflecting human goodwill.
It is to be hoped that if Moravec's Children of the Mind
ever eventuate, they will have been nurtured with love, stimulus
and discipline, all the attributes one would expect from a caring
icon in the final days of the Age of Big Sister.
Thus the future nature of parliamentary libraries, which are likely
to become increasingly electronic over time, is intrinsically linked
to research developments within the hardware, software and communications
industries.
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REFERENCES
(1) Walt Crawford, 'Paper persists: why physical
library collections still matter', Online, v.22 no.1 1998, pp.46-47
(2) 'Bad new for trees', The Economist (UK), 19 Dec 1998, p.151
(3) Walt Crawford, op.cit. p.4
(4) Ibid.p.46-47
(5) Claire McDonald, 'Hot off the press', The Times, 2 Jun 1999
2//
(6) 'Just call them biblio-files', Newsweek, v.22 i9 1999, p.58
(7) Gus Venditto, 'The paperless office? Ha!', Internet World, 2
Nov 1998, p.58
(8) Phil Moroney , Performance Media, Bardon QLD
(9) Calire McDonald, op.cit.,p.2//
(10) Ibid.,p.2//
(11) Peter Cochrane, '108 tips for time travellers', London, Orion
Business Books, 1988 p.88
(12) Ibid.,p.94
(13) Ibid.,p67
(14) Ibid.,p.67
(15) 'Electromagnetic hot-spots make cars go crazy', Sydney Morning
Herald', 13 Oct 1997
(16) Chris O'Malley, Popular Science, v.252 n.3 March 1988, p.64
(17) Peter Cochrane, op cit.,p.118
(18) This referred to staff combining computing, general library
and keyboard skills.
(19) Kim Dowling also created the IFLA and APLA Homepages on the
Internet.
(20) Michael White, 'Superscience', London, Earthlight, 1999 p.218
(21) Peter Cochrane, op.cit.,p.160
(22) Robert Service, 'Neurons and silicon get intimate', Science,
v.284 i5414 ,23 Apr 1999 p.578
(23) Marc M.Groz, 'What's a qubit, and do you want one?', PC Magazine,
v.16 n.22, 16 Dec 1997, p.28
(24) Dan Vergano, 'Brewing a quantum computer in a coffee cup',
Science News, v.151 n.3, 18 Jan 1997, p.37
(25) Stephen Strauss, 'How to make a robot smile', MIT's Technology
Review, v.199 n.7, Oct 1997, p.14
(26) Peter Cochrane, op.cit., P120
(27) Christopher Evans, 'The mighty macro; the impact of the computer
revolution', Victor Gollancz Ltd., 1979, p.108
(28) Sebastion Rupley, 'You'll look at computers in a whole new
way', PC Magazine, 22 Jun 1999, p.134
(29) 'Say hello to the new Ericsson T18', Ericsson brochure, 1999
(30) 'Series 5mx for the business of life', Psion Computers, 1999
(31) 'C Pen', C Technologies AB, 1999
(32) 'Phone robots! Robot chases up library books', Daily Mail (UK),
10 Jun 1999, p.2
(33) Eileen Hitchingham, 'Collection management in light of electronic
publishing', Information Technology & Libraries, v.15 Mar 1996,
p.38
(34) Peter Cochrane, op.cit., p.149
(35) Robin McKie, 'Girl power', The Observer Magazine, 20 Jun 1999,
p.20.
(36) Peter Cochrane, op.cit., p.188
(37) M.Groz, op.cit.,p.28
(38) M. Gros, op.cit.,p.28
(39) Ibid.,p.28
(40) Ibid.,p.28
(41) Peter Cochrane, op.cit., p.160
(42) Ibid., p.161
(43) Ibid., p.161
(44) Peter Weiss, 'Quantum Internet', Science News, v.155 i14, 3
Apr 1999, p.220
(45) Ivars Peterson, 'Instant transport; achieving quantum teleportation
in the labortatory', Science News, v.153 n.3, 17 Jan 1998, p.41
(46) Ibid., p.41
(47) Peter Weiss., op.cit.,p.220
(48) Ibid., p.220
(49) Ibid., p.220
(50) Ibid.,p.220
(51) Peter Cochrane, op.cit., p.161
(52) Christopher Evans, op.cit., p.229
(53) Peter Cochrane, op.cit. p.-2
(54) Jeff Minerd, 'Robots: our evolutionary heirs?', The Futurist,
v.22 i2, Feb 1999, p.8
(55) Ibid., p.8
(56) Ibid., p.8
(57) Stephen Strauss, 'How to make a robot smile?', MIT's Technology
Review, v.100 n.7, Oct 1997, p.14
(58) Stephen Strauss, op.cit., p.14
(59) Ibid., p.14-17
(60) Ibid.
(61) Jeff Minerd, op.cit., p.8
(62) Stephen Bevan, 'Companies seek chip implants to control staff',
The Sunday Times, 9 May 1999, p.7
(63) Ibid., p.7
(64) Jeremy Myerson, 'Working glass; how the use of light and space
can nurture creativity among office staff', Daily Telegraph 'Special
Report', 19 Jun 1999, p.8
(65) Ibid., p.8
(66) Peter Cochrane, op.cit., pp.58-59
(67) Ibid., pp.58-59
(68) Ibid., p.59
(69) Ibid., p.189
(70) Ibid., p.97
(71) Ibid., p.97
(72) Manx BT
(73) Jeff Minerd., op.cit., p.8
(74) Michael While, op.cit., p.218
(75) Peter Cochrane, op.cit.
(76) Chris Morton & Ceri Louise Thomas, 'The mystery of the
crystal skulls', Thorsons, 3rd ed., 1998, p.370
(77) Ibid., pp.304-309
(78) Search carried out by the Chemistry Librarian, University of
Queensland in 1969
(79) Chris Morton & Ceri Louise Thomas, op.cit., pp.304-305
(80) David Deutsch quoted in 'Time Lords' BBC Horizons. Transmitted
2 Dec 1996
(81) Fred Alan Wolf, 'The dreaming universe', Simon & Schuster,
1994, pp.238-240
(82) Chris Morton & Ceri Louise Thomas, op.cit., p.306
(83) Stephen Hawking, 'The illustrated a brief history of time',
London, Bantam Press, 1996, pp.201-202
(84) 'Time Lords', BBC Horizons. op.cit.
(85) Chris Morton & Ceri Louise Thomas, op.cit., p.308; New
Scientist, 9 Dec 1995
(86) Michael White, op.cit., pp.224-225
(87) Adam Rogers, 'They could hold the key to thoughts and memories
or become the building blocks of living computers', New Scientist,
n.2190, 12 Jun 1999, pp.41-43
(88) Ibid., p.42
(89) Ibid., p.43
(90) Ibid., p.43
(91) Ibid., p.43
(92) Ibid., p.43
(93) Susan Greenfield, 'The human brain: a guided tour', Phoenix,
1997
(94) Christopher Evans, op.cit., p.242
(95) Ibid., p.242
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